Showing posts with label low floating stock. Show all posts
Showing posts with label low floating stock. Show all posts

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Profitable holidays

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Mahindra Holidays & Resorts (MHR) is a Mahindra  group company with a very strong franchise in vacation ownership under the brand name Club Mahindra. Mahindra group holds 75% stake, FIIs hold about 12.5% stake and DIIs hold another 5%. So together more than 90% of the shares are owned by promoters and institutions. There can’t be any other comforting factor than these figures. This also means that the public holds merely 7-8% of the shares.
This is a very attractive company with 41 resorts and nearly 2500 rooms. Recently they have acquired a 19% stake in a leading European vacation ownership company Holiday Club. This company also has 32 resorts and 2800 rooms. And the agreement between the 2 is that in the next 2 years, Mahindra Holidays can own upto 74% stake in the company, thus making it a majority owned subsidiary. If this were to happen Club Mahindra will become a vacation ownership company not only in India but also globally.
This company had launched in IPO in June 2009 and has been growing ever since. 5 years ago, it had a turnover of merely 390 crore which has grown to nearly 770 crore today.And considering India’s demography, this growth can only accelerate in the coming years.
This company operates in markets where there is a huge young population with high aspirations. This has resulted in their membership count growing annually by about 18000. And considering the new govt’s focus on travel and tourism, MHR is bound to grow handsomely.
5 years ago, they had launched an IPO @300 per share. And despite growing ever since, this is now quoting even below that value at about 275 This only goes to show the Indian market’s utter disregard for fundamentals - management as well as growth quality. And they haven’t given any bonus or split since then.
Another thing worth noting is that recently Thomas Cook, the global travel and tours company acquired Sterling Holiday Resorts, a much smaller player in the same industry. And if u consider the valuations and price at which this deal was done, MHR is really quoting at dirt cheap levels.
This can only mean that with a very low floating stock, excellent growth prospects and cheap valuation,  Mahindra Holidays will only give handsome returns in the months and years ahead.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Healthy future

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Zenotech Labs is a specialty generic injectables company with a strong expertise in the area of bio-technology. Its predominantly high value injectables product portfolios serve niche therapy areas such as oncology and anaesthesiology. It is a subsidiary of Ranbaxy Labs and hence now of Daiichi Sankyo (DS) which bought out Ranbaxy in 2008. In January ’08, Ranbaxy had acquired nearly 47% in Zenotech @160/share. But in June ’08, Ranbaxy itself got acquired by DS. As per SEBI rules, DS made an open offer for Zenotech @ 113.62/share as per the prevailing rules of the highest of the 6 month or 2 week price following the announcement. Currently, Ranbaxy holds nearly 47% and DS holds the 20% it acquired in the open offer following Ranbaxy’s acquisition. The founders (Jayaram Chigurupati and his family) still hold nearly 26% in the company. The point to note is that the floating stock in the market is just about 10% (or even below it) and is below the acceptable limit of public shareholding. This also means that they will have to either delist the company or lower their stake by at least 15% or more, which is a significant amount in terms of number of shares as well as the cost.

This company has been in the news for all the wrong reasons over the last few years since Ranbaxy’s takeover. The main reason for this state of affairs is the dispute between Mr. Jayaram Chigurupati (JC), the founder and erstwhile promoter of Zenotech Labs, and DS regarding the open offer price. Zenotech and its founder challenged the open offer price with the argument that since Ranbaxy is now a subsidiary of Daiichi and by definition the 2 are Persons acting in Concert, the PAC definition can be applied retrospectively to the time when Ranbaxy acquired Zenotech. And since at that time Ranbaxy paid 160/share, 160 becomes the applicable price for Daiichi's open offer for Zenotech. Zenotech's argument won in the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) in October 2009, much to the surprise of India’s legal & M&A community. However, DS appealed in the Supreme Court who overturned SAT ruling and cleared the open offer. 

However, last year, in a new twist to Ranbaxy-Zenotech takeover dispute, Zenotech Labs founder JC moved the Company Law Board (CLB) seeking permission to buy back shares from Ranbaxy and its Japanese owner Daiichi Sankyo. JC said he was willing to pay about Rs 130/share to take back Zenotech, which has been in rough weather after being acquired by Ranbaxy in 2007.

In July ‘12, JC filed a petition in the Andhra Pradesh High Court challenging the FIPB approval allowing Daiichi to acquire 20 per cent stake from Zenotech’s public shareholders. According to the petition, the FIPB failed in complying with the rule book by not seeking the Board resolution of Zenotech for foreign collaboration coming in the form of Daiichi. The FIPB approval had also allowed Daiichi to acquire another 20% stake of Zenotech through an offer to the public shareholders. In the current petition, Chigurupati is seeking setting aside of the approval and restraining Daiichi from exercising its voting rights in Zenotech, in addition to stopping the foreign company from making any structural changes to the ownership of Zenotech. He also accused Daiichi of mismanagement and non-payment of salaries forcing its 200-odd employees to quit.

In the latest development, Dr. Jayaram Chigurupati has ceased to be the MD of the Company upon completion of his term on September 30, 2012.

Looking at the above factors, this case bears a distinct resemblance to another company called DISA whose shares were also held up in court over a dispute regarding the open offer. Post the court decision, their shareholding increased to about 86.5% currently. So they also need to decide soon how they plan to stick to the 25% public shareholding norms.

Considering a strong parent in the form of Ranbaxy/DS and the low public shareholding, this should give good returns over a longer timeframe. There are 3 scenarios:
1.  The CLB/Ranbaxy/DS accept JC’s proposal to acquire the shares @130/share and delist the company. The current price is about 35. Huge windfall for the public shareholders as everybody will get this price and the company will be delisted.
2.   Court accepts JC’s petition that the 20% acquired by DS was wrong and he wins the case. In which case, what happens to the 20% that DS acquired is still unclear.
a.  If it is extinguished, Ranbaxy will end up having about 59% stake with the founder JC holding about 29% and the rest with the public, in the new shareholding structure.
b.  If the court asks DS to return the shares to the original holders from whom they were acquired, it would be similar to the option above. But then the question would be what happens to the money that DS paid to these shareholders for the 20% stake? No shareholder would be either willing or happy to return the money and get the shares back. There may be further litigations on this count unless the court takes a holistic view and lays down clear rules regarding handling of all possible options arising out of its decision.
c.  If it is bought by JC, he and Ranbaxy will become nearly equal shareholders with each holding about 45%.
d.  If it is bought by Ranbaxy, Ranbaxy will end up with 67% and JC’s share will remain the same i.e. about 26%.
In any of the above cases, they will then have to reduce their shareholding to stick to the 25% public holding norm. Again the price at which they do so will be a crucial factor.
e.  Or one may buy the other out. In that case, the price would be interesting since JC has already offered 130/share to buy Ranbaxy/DS share. Even if this looks farfetched and may not materialize, the price may well be at a premium to the current price. And as is seen in open offers, the price tends to shoot up immediately after the announcement and settled down close to the offer price.

3.   Court as well as CLB rejects JC’s proposal and upholds Ranbaxy/DS version. It will again be similar to the second option above whereby they will have to reduce their shareholding to stick to the 25% public holding norm.
In both options 2 and 3 above, if it boils down to either or both of the majority stakeholders reducing their holding, the price may be the clinching factor and this is where it gets risky. For, if everybody plays by the book, the price may not be attractive going by the average price over the last year or so.

However, over the longer term, once these issues are resolved, and Zenotech Labs gets back on track to doing what it does best (assuming it remains listed with either Ranbaxy/DS combine or JC at the helm), it would be back to its glory days a la Wockhardt. The only question is how long the longer term will stretch. The jury is still out at this point.

Once thing though, looks certain. Things can’t continue as they are now with public shareholding close to 10% and the June ’13 deadline not too far away. It is a question of who blinks first.

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Catching up fast

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Shalimar Paints is one of the low profile paint companies in the countries and comes behind the 4 known biggies – Asian Paints, Kansai Nerolac, Berger Paints and Akzo Nobel (formerly ICI). It was originally formed as a JV between Girish Jhunjhunwala, a HongKong based NRI (20%) and the Delhi-based O P Jindal group (42%). Thereafter in October 2001, the Jindal Group diluted a part of its equity in favor of Girish Jhunjhunwala group and both the groups currently holds 31.18% each in the company, thereby making the promoters shareholding at around 63 %. Besides this a set of public (including some insurance companies like Oriental and NIC) together hold about 17%. It has a very low equity base of 3.79 cr. leading to very low floating stock since promoters and some others together hold as big a chunk as 80%. The company currently has its manufacturing plants located at Howrah (West Bengal), Nasik (Maharashtra) and Sikandrabad (Uttar Pradesh).

Last year, the promoters who hold 63% between them had tried to offload their stake since this was a non-core activity for them (as is known, Jindals are totally focused on steel) besides being of insignificant size. Paint majors like Kansai Nerolac (a listed company) and Sherwin-Williams (a US paint major with presence in India but no manufacturing base) had shown interest then. Sherwin Williams currently imports its paints and have been marketing it for the last 4-5 years. So this fits in well with their plans of getting a ready manufacturing base in India. But the entire process was abandoned or put on the back burner for some reason. Then the stock had nearly doubled to close to 1000. Now it appears that this thought has resurfaced and there appears to be informed buying in the stock over the last few days. The company is thus catching up fast with its peers.

They recently declared very good results and their ttm EPS is nearly 39. So at the current price of 600 (after the recent run up), it trades at about 16 PE multiple. However, if the last quarter results were anything to go by, the current year’s EPS could be much bigger (last quarter they made an EPS of 16), leading to an even lower discounting. The other 4 paint biggies whether Asian Paints, Kansai Nerolac,  Berger Paints or AkzoNobel all are ruling at a PE multiple of Rs 25 plus. So there is ample scope for a higher price going forward. And once the stake sale news is out, all hell will break loose. Remember there is very low floating stock so everybody will scramble for whatever share of the pie is available.

Most paint companies have a market cap which is more than its sales revenues as is evident from the table below, ranging from 4.48 for Asian Paints to 1.66 for Akzo Nobel (ICI). Shalimar Paints commands a Market Cap to Sales of just 0.47. The company thus appears grossly undervalued compared to its peers and carries potential to reduce the huge valuation gap which exists currently.


Price (Rs.)
M-Cap (Cr.)
Sales (Cr.)
M-cap/sales
Asian Paints
3,700.20
35,492.24
7,924.70
4.48
Berger Paints
133.20
4,610.91
2,100.82
2.19
Kansai Nerolac
911.00
4,909.56
2,585.90
1.90
Akzo Nobel
876.20
3,227.42
1,942.52
1.66
Shalimar Paints
604.90
228.99
483.78
0.47

The major reason for this stock not getting a good discounting is its comparatively low OPM compared to the other paint companies. This can be attributed to its low scale of operations. The company has taken cognizance of this and has initiated moves to address this such as expansion of its facilities. If it falls into good hands, this will surely be a thing of the past.