tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.comments2023-12-07T19:03:10.881+05:30Investment IdeasDinesh Shirvaikarhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-69168449903334522322017-01-18T01:12:11.270+05:302017-01-18T01:12:11.270+05:30Excellent piece of work sir.
it's amazing blo...Excellent piece of work sir.<br /> it's amazing blog for retail investors the best part is you kept it free for all.<br />Thank you so much. Would love to see similar stuff on <a href="http://www.moneynbusiness.com/2016/11/latest-list-of-top-15-quality-stocks-at-low-PE-Dec-2016.html" rel="nofollow">multibagger stocks ideas 2017</a>.<br />AShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00049806157442301985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-81262294498901460592017-01-18T01:11:52.230+05:302017-01-18T01:11:52.230+05:30Excellent piece of work sir.
it's amazing blo...Excellent piece of work sir.<br /> it's amazing blog for retail investors the best part is you kept it free for all.<br />Thank you so much. Would love to see similar stuff on <a href="http://www.moneynbusiness.com/2016/11/latest-list-of-top-15-quality-stocks-at-low-PE-Dec-2016.html" rel="nofollow">multibagger stocks ideas 2017</a>.<br />AShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00049806157442301985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-36907004490273965212016-08-02T23:51:51.725+05:302016-08-02T23:51:51.725+05:30In just over a year, CF has risen more than 58% an...In just over a year, CF has risen more than 58% and is currently quoting around 728 from 446 when this was written. It has ridden the NBFC bull wave very nicely indeed. And with a quality management led by Vaidyanathan, ample liquidity in the market currently and the current flavour for NBFCs in the market (primarily due to the lack of an NPA problem here unlike banks which are well and truly plagued by it), good times may continue for some time.<br />However bear in mind that it is not quoting cheaply or attractively. With continuous good results, strong growth confidence shown by a credible management, it will continue to attract premium valuations for times to come. However, if u consider it in comparison to the current no. 1 NBFC Bajaj Finance which is quoting at 7-8 times its book value, this is quoting at half of that. No wonder it is touted by some as a BF in the making.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-30503559795986797282016-08-02T23:30:39.299+05:302016-08-02T23:30:39.299+05:30From about 160 in Dec. '14 when I first wrote ...From about 160 in Dec. '14 when I first wrote about it, it has now risen to 250, a CAGR of 31% in about a year and a half. With Kalyani group's focus on defence and improvement in steel prices due to the impending economic revival, Kalyani Steels still has a long way to go. Just look at the figures. Its Mar '16 EPS was about 24 and even at the current price of 250, it discounts it by just about 10 times. And it has posted excellent Q1 results. Its TTM (trailing 12 months - average of the last 4 consecutive quarters, not necessarily of the same FY, which makes it more realistic) EPS is now at about 30 thus discounting it even further and making it attractively valued. Further, it continues to reduce its debt. Thus all the right moves made by it point to a great future for Kalyani Steels.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-15264344588085297042016-06-02T23:22:50.617+05:302016-06-02T23:22:50.617+05:30Gladdens my heart to see a multi-bagger here....fr...Gladdens my heart to see a multi-bagger here....from about 200 in July '12 to 1000 i.e. 5 times in 4 years...if this isn't a multi-bagger, then I don't know what is ! With a clean management, a low profile and good prospects forecast for NBFCs post the foreasted good monsoon and NPA-issues plaguing PSU banks and to some extent even some of the better private ones like ICICI and Axis, it is exactly companies like Cholamandalam which will go about their business in their usual, solid way, and continue to do well. Hold it for long enough to get solid steady returns a la Bajaj Finance.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-42426221685346629702015-12-06T02:03:54.770+05:302015-12-06T02:03:54.770+05:30Styrolutions manufactures engineering polymers of ...Styrolutions manufactures engineering polymers of which crude is a key raw material. With crude at its lowest in recent years, and looking to stay at these levels for quite some time, this is one stock which is set to benefit significantly in the period ahead.<br />Also, the parent Styrolutions holds 75% and Reliance Capital 5.23% for its Small Cap fund which has done exceedingly well in the last few years. Thus the floating stock is only about 20%.<br />Styrolutions ABS has made 3 offers in the last few years, the last unsuccessful one being at 500 in July ‘13, and has failed in all the attempts. And this offer was made after a successful OFS @415, where no doubt their cronies would have cornered a large chunk only to offer it back to the company when it launches an open offer, and thus helping to make it successful. Unfortunately, none of these plans have as yet succeeded.<br />With a benign environment, things should definitely change for the better. And a de-listing offer at a good price should be a welcome move as well.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-61869166144323372352015-11-30T18:21:40.652+05:302015-11-30T18:21:40.652+05:30Astra Microwave Products (AMP) has given returns o...Astra Microwave Products (AMP) has given returns of more than 41% compounded annually over the last 3 and half years, a feat not achieved by many, even among the blue chips and favoured midcaps.<br />And the reasons are not far to see. Whatever I had mentioned then has played out to script.<br />Govt. has raised the FDI, AMP has received new orders from the govt. and the environment for the defence equipment sector has in general turned benign. And with the new liberalized regime, good performance should continue, though in a more moderated way.<br />In August ’15, they signed a JV with Rafael Advanced Defence System of Israel, a country respected in the field of defense for its high-tech research and products. The company has signed a term sheet for joint production and supply of Tactical Radio Communication systems, Electronic war-fare systems and Signal intelligence systems. They also have a subsidiary in Singapore and a JV in Canada.<br />And the company has continued to be recognized. They ranked 31st as a leading technology company from Deloitte Technology in Fast 50 India 2015 programme. With the rupee continuing its downhill journey w.r.t. USD, exporters or forex earners such as AMP would be direct beneficiaries.<br />Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-26309700722418765402015-11-30T16:42:27.332+05:302015-11-30T16:42:27.332+05:30Mahindra Holidays has given returns of 51% over th...Mahindra Holidays has given returns of 51% over the last 1 year when it was quoting at 275 compared to around 429 today. As I had said, the gap between the 2 was quite large then. And though it has reduced significantly, it still exists in no small measure.<br />The biggest advantage that I think MH has over Thomas Cook is its overseas business. With the rupee cracking against the dollar, MH can only gain from the differential. And there is no sign of the rupee appreciating anytime soon. So its performance is likely to get a boost from external factors such as these, in addition to its own.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-78514848720153600792015-11-17T18:40:37.174+05:302015-11-17T18:40:37.174+05:30DIC is now quoting at 652 from the levels of close...DIC is now quoting at 652 from the levels of close to 280 in Nov. '13, a compounded annual return of about 51%. No wonder they wanted to delist @260, which was rightly unsuccessful. And even at this price, it is still quoting at a reasonable ttm P/E of 26.<br />So it does pay to watch out for low profile, yet sound pedigree MNC like DIC.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-51312545607733504162015-11-16T14:34:32.740+05:302015-11-16T14:34:32.740+05:30Follow me on Twitter @d_shirvaikarFollow me on Twitter @d_shirvaikarDinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-1931410730103706062015-11-12T22:16:24.840+05:302015-11-12T22:16:24.840+05:30At the cost of sounding immodest, must say I am fe...At the cost of sounding immodest, must say I am feeling glad after reading that from last Diwali to this one, Nifty has returned -2.7% and Sensex -3.9%, while my picks have returned +13.87%. On the sectoral front also, this portfolio has comfortably beaten Nifty Pharma index, which returned 11%, and Nifty IT index which returned just 4%. <br />It must however be remembered that both Nifty and Sensex are essentially large-cap portfolios and hence will always usually lag a diversified portfolio consisting of stocks across market caps, and my picks were essentially mid-caps. The only exception to this could be a secular rally in large-cap stocks which can then beat a diversified portfolio due to the drag on mid-and-small cap stocks. <br />But then, my belief is that significant money can only be made in good mid-caps which can one day go on to become large caps, and in the process deliver stellar returns. The only caveat to this theory is that one must have the stomach and patience to see them through turbulent times which are bound to occur in any mid-cap's life cycle.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-13471714980714998242015-09-05T21:48:28.921+05:302015-09-05T21:48:28.921+05:30Dinesh sir, good analysisDinesh sir, good analysisbujjannahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12642887602842056916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-69383645083111144992015-08-05T01:17:37.488+05:302015-08-05T01:17:37.488+05:30The second Buffetism - The best time to buy a com...The second Buffetism - The best time to buy a company is when it's in trouble, fits Sun TV like a T. <br />Apart from the fact that the govt. had threatened to stop its channels over its promoters background/arrest, there was nothing operationally wrong with it. And people from South can vouch how many people stopped seeing its channels post this govt. decision. Of course, Sun TV duly challenged it in court, and appears to have a good chance of winning it too. This is due to the fact that within the govt. itself, there is no unanimity over the decision. While MHA wants to block it, I&B doesn't. Even the AG appears to be on the side of the I&B ministry giving Sun a much needed boost. And how Sun has risen. People who had bought Sun TV at around 280 when the crisis was at its peak, would be laughing their way to the bank with gains of 25% in close to a month. No mean feat indeed in the current market !<br />And I think Sun TV is far from done. If the case is finally settled in its favor, it would be difficult to get hold of. With a near monopoly in the South Indian drawing rooms, it would not be long before it regained its lost glory.<br />In the worst case scenario, if the govt. indeed has its way and bans Marans from operating it, they can always sell to an interested buyer (and there would be plenty of them - Indian and foreign) at a good price. If not, they can go about their business expansion as they have been doing. Either way, the people who would benefit would be the shareholders.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-79154903507005190012015-08-05T01:05:10.115+05:302015-08-05T01:05:10.115+05:30It appears that there is no stopping Huhtamaki PPL...It appears that there is no stopping Huhtamaki PPL. From 60 in May '12, and 190 in Sep. '14, it has crossed 300 recently, going up 5-fold in 3 years (and even more than 50% in the last year alone) giving more than 100% annual returns compounded.<br />Goes on to show that form is temporary but class is permanent. And this company has all the good things going for it - a low equity base (about 14 cr.), a very high MNC promoter holding at more than 60% (hence a complete control) and a reasonably safe defensive sector of packaging which goes hand in hand with FMCG and related industries. So all the right flavors for a steady growth.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-61012668407582717452015-01-14T18:42:36.032+05:302015-01-14T18:42:36.032+05:30Since writing this post in July ’12, CIFCO has mo...Since writing this post in July ’12, CIFCO has moved from 202 to the current 522 as of today’s closing, giving a return of 150% in 2 and a half years @CAGR of nearly 46%. Analysts expect it to quote @P/BV in the range of 2.3-2.7 for the next 2 years which would still be cheaper than some of its peers such as M&M FS. And the key areas it operates in – Vehicle financing, financial products distribution as well as stock broking are all seeing good traction and will continue to do so going forward for the next few years.<br />Currently NBFCs focused on the housing finance sector are the flavor of the season due to the impending rate cuts. And the result is that quite a few of these HFCs have run up too much too soon and are quoting at expensive valuations. Sooner or later, this should also spread to NBFCs in other areas as well as soon as an improvement in the operational areas is visible which would be a direct function of the health of the economy.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-42151070882732199312015-01-14T14:23:56.788+05:302015-01-14T14:23:56.788+05:30Since the first post on 20 Feb’12 and later after ...Since the first post on 20 Feb’12 and later after re-affirming my faith in Maxwell at Diwali ’12, this has returned a CAGR of about 20% (from about 24 in Feb ’12 to 41 today in Jan ‘15) , which I think is a pretty healthy figure. As I had indicated in both of my posts, this one was for the patient investor who is willing to wait it out. And looks like this is exactly what seems to be unfolding.<br />Maxwell was beset by a lot of problems, some of its own doing and some due to the hostile economic environment. But it seems to have gathered itself together and is slowly moving back on the right track. It has made some strategic decisions which, if successful, have the potential to catapult it into a different league a la Page. All the things I have said in my post still hold good; it is only the implementation which was lacking. It is a well-known fact that strategic decisions take a while to show impact on a company and Maxwell is no exception. So this will not happen overnight but over a period of time. But once the initial efforts are spent on putting things right, growth should be at a much faster pace than what it is now. Meanwhile, this would be a good time to continue accumulation and monitor its quarterly performance to see if its strategy is working.<br />Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-4550385536308635662015-01-10T14:52:25.848+05:302015-01-10T14:52:25.848+05:30Since this post on Sept 23, '14, GD has moved...Since this post on Sept 23, '14, GD has moved up by about 39% in about 3 and a half months. But the story is just beginning. With the govt's positive moves on infra front, warehousing is about to get a major boost. And the current growth hasn't yet factored in Snowman's figures. So hold tight and enjoy the ride.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-56032867061189472552014-12-31T12:46:10.895+05:302014-12-31T12:46:10.895+05:30SKS Microfinance has moved from 315 to 415 in a mo...SKS Microfinance has moved from 315 to 415 in a month and a half, a return of about 30% in slightly more than a month. But as I have said above, this is just the beginning and SKS has a long way to go in creating wealth for its shareholders. With RBI paving the way for niche banks such as for e.g. payment only and other forms, SKS can potentially look at these options in the long term (this is only my theory and without any input from SKS or any other source). Remember that Bandhan, which was one of the few to get a banking license in recent times pipping corporate biggies such as Reliance and Birla, is also an MFI. Also, MFI is still a nascent business in India and there aren’t many players in this segment yet. Besides, it also requires some expertise and hence entry barriers do exist for new players. Being one of the oldest players, SKS has certainly mastered the art of micro-lending and the ensuing risk management. So SKS would certainly have the first-mover advantage in this segment. Just look at Page Industries, TTK Prestige etc. who have created tremendous wealth for their shareholders by being focused on niche segments and being the first-movers there. In fact these companies have created niche segments where none existed (would u have thought of wearing branded underwear a decade back?). SKS certainly has the opportunity to emulate them.<br />However, the ride may not be smooth and there will be bouts of profit booking occasionally from traders, but that should not deter long-term investors who are there for the long haul. Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-89915865284339000302014-11-16T03:04:02.842+05:302014-11-16T03:04:02.842+05:30Since this post, ING Vyasa Bank has gone from 612 ...Since this post, ING Vyasa Bank has gone from 612 to 770 as on 14-Nov, a return of nearly 26% in less than 1 year. And with the economy on the revival path, there is more to come from this one.<br />And Sona Koyo has truly been a mutl-bagger in every which way u look at it. At the time of this post, it was quoting around 20. And over the last 11 months, it has moved to 57, nearly 3 times in less than 1 year. And with its global acquisitions and sound products, its growth prospects still look pretty good even at these levels. A bonus will be the revival of the domestic auto industry over the coming years.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-10982058347661873402014-10-01T00:06:57.672+05:302014-10-01T00:06:57.672+05:30On expected lines, the troubles of MCX are now a t...On expected lines, the troubles of MCX are now a thing of the past. With Kotak Mahindra Bank as the new promoter, having bought FT’s 15% stake, it is certainly in good hands. And nothing was really fundamentally wrong with its business model or operations, all this while. It is just that it had to suffer the ill-effects of FT’s doings in NSEL. And the govt/SEBI did absolutely the right thing in asking Jiggibhai to get out of it as fast as he could. The results are for you to see.<br />This stock has seen it all. From the heady levels of 1600 post listing, it crashed t 700 post the NSEL scam and then to nearly 450 in Oct. last year. As I had written then, contrarian bets do pay off hugely provided u bet on the right stock. And this is one such. From nearly 450 same time last year, it has now nearly doubled quoting at nearly 800 today. And with Kotak driving it, happy days are surely ahead.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-35917194446695573462014-09-30T23:53:24.995+05:302014-09-30T23:53:24.995+05:30This is another one where the story has played out...This is another one where the story has played out to script. It closed today at around 86 from 43 in Sep’ 12 and 53 in Oct ’12. From Sep’ 12 till date, this has returned nearly 39% compounded annualized (CAGR) and from Oct ’12, shown a CAGR of nearly 27%. What more can one ask for?<br />Though a relatively unknown MNC, this scrip still has a lot of potential, given Modi sarkar’s thrust on infrastructure spending. The MNC parent HeidelbergCement AG holds nearly 70% in the scrip and there is always a chance of de-listing happening as with any MNC with a significant holding. That would be a bonus.<br />Sell only of you need money. Else hold on for steady returns over the long term; last 2 years were a preview of what can happen in the next 2.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-2303265319887541382014-09-28T03:40:34.598+05:302014-09-28T03:40:34.598+05:30So MCFL war has again picked up post the receipt o...So MCFL war has again picked up post the receipt of all the regulatory clearances some time back. Yesterday (26-Sept) it was locked at the UC @88. In 1 year, it has gone up by more than 50% from 53 on 01-Oct-13, and nearly 200% from Apr. '13, when I had given a call to accumulate this share, anticipating the sequence which has now played out very well indeed. <br />While there is still scope for the price to go up from here (since Deepak Fertilizers has announced the open offer price of 93/share, about 48% more from its earlier price of around 68), it may not pay to be too greedy. Already the share has gone thru the roof and is now purely event-driven and beyond fundamentals, quoting @P/E of about 15 which, for a fertilizer company, is very high. So people who had bought it around 50-levels or below over the last year or so, should certainly offload a part of their holding and sell on every rise, without actually waiting to tender the shares on the open offer, which would be counterproductive because of the tax implications. Once the winner of the takeover battle is declared by mid-Oct, it is likely to go down well below 50-levels where it traded before this chain of events started (after all, nothing has changed fundamentally for this share). And it must also be remembered that monsoon has not really been great this year. So fertilizer companies are likely to feel the pressure in the coming quarters.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-31834426187866611612014-09-17T23:38:58.402+05:302014-09-17T23:38:58.402+05:30From about 60 in May ’12, this has galloped to abo...From about 60 in May ’12, this has galloped to about 190 now, a compounded return of nearly 62% in slightly over 2 years. Couldn’t be better, could it? However, considering that the economic growth has not really started yet, I would expect better days are yet to come for Huhtamaki PPL (formerly known as The Paper Products or PPL).<br />Recently in July, it acquired Positive Packaging, a privately owned flexible packaging company with 9 manufacturing facilities in India, UAE, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, UK and the US. Positive Packaging Industries is part of Nigeria-based Enpee Group headed by N.P. Kirpalani. The acquisition cost was Rs2015-crore. The deal will allow Huhtamaki to double its India revenues, which stood at Rs.1000 crore as on 31 March 2014. It will also allow the Finnish firm to strengthen its presence in Africa. Huhtamaki serves top clients like Hindustan Unilever Ltd and Coca-Cola Company. Considering that the Indian business will be acquired for Rs.818 crore, the acquisition reflects parent company’s increasing interest in Indian operations.<br />This is a proxy play for FMCG companies. Considering that FMCG companies are trading at rich valuations of over 30, and this being an MNC stock (though not widely known, and hence covered here in my post Offbeat MNC-2), there is no reason it should trade much higher even from current levels.<br />The hike in holding by Huhtamaki in HPPL since Feb 2014 from 60.8% to 68.8% (till date), change in the name of the company recently from Paper Products to Huhtamaki PPL and the fact that Huhtamaki has complete control over almost all its other subsidiaries point towards HPPL being a probable candidate for de-listing over the medium to long term. While this event is unlikely to happen in near term, any progress on that front in the medium to long term could be a big positive trigger.Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-70223541636854323912014-08-21T19:07:47.137+05:302014-08-21T19:07:47.137+05:30SML Isuzu has started firing on all cylinders !! F...SML Isuzu has started firing on all cylinders !! From 600 in July, it has jumped up to around 800 now, a return of nearly 33% in 1 month !! This though should be looked at from a longer term perspective. It has more than doubled in 2-1/2 years !! <br />A few years back, before the entry of Volvo, Eicher Motors was also in a similar situation. Volvo came in and changed the face of the company ! And how !!<br />From around 60 in 2003, it has come close to 10,000 today !! Not many stocks can boast of that kind of performance. <br />If things pan out as I expect, this could well be on its way to be the next Eicher Motors. A strong MNC management and long term investors (DIIs) are 2 things which inspire a lot of confidence in this scrip. Hold on and enjoy the ride !!Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7208716115849163663.post-85231558850810947852014-08-12T23:02:24.054+05:302014-08-12T23:02:24.054+05:30Looks like N. Shivapriya of ET agrees with my view...Looks like N. Shivapriya of ET agrees with my views....read the details here:<br />http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/how-hcl-firstsource-maruti-britannia-emerged-stronger-from-slowdown/articleshow/40073677.cms?curpg=2Dinesh Shirvaikarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03765972260426456677noreply@blogger.com