Bearing the economic brunt

After the initial global liquidity driven euphoria, since December last year (2012), the markets have begun their downward journey once more, as is their wont. And this time, it is not the usual suspects, the midcaps, who have borne the brunt, but some of the large caps as well. These are by no means dodgy companies with questionable promoters but global companies who are suffering the ill-effects of a sluggish economy and more so in the power sector. Considering that this gloom-and-doom scenario is not going to last forever, this also gives an opportunity to load up on such beaten down stocks. It is interesting to note that these are from the much maligned infrastructure sector which is desperately looking for some rope from the government.

Consider 2 of the most promising stocks in the infra space, both catering to the power sector – Siemens and ABB. Both have touched their 52-week lows in the last few days and there seem to be hardly any takers for them in the current environment. And they really can’t be faulted in a trader’s market that holds sway currently. Long term investing seems to be a thing of the past, and not unjustifiably either if the behavior of the markets over the last 5 years is observed. However, as Warren Buffet once famously said, “The right time to buy is when everyone is selling”. Going by that adage, the current market seems to be ripe for the picking.

The reason for ABB tanking was the underperform rating put out by BofA-ML on it. Cost over-runs due to project delays and delay in payment by clients have resulted in a fall in revenues as well as margins. At the investor conference call, management emphasized the cautious outlook for ABB's projects business, but highlighted an improved performance for the product business. ABB currently trades @570, close to its 52-wk low of 560.

Same appears to be the case with Siemens. Siemens builds trains, power plants, wind turbines, light bulbs and other items closely related to a country’s industrial fortune. The company lost its crown in July ’12 as Germany’s most valuable company to SAP, the business software maker, even though Siemens revenues were much higher. It must be remembered that Siemens did a buyback of its shares @930 about 2 years back. The price has nearly halved in the last 2 years since then, for the reasons mentioned earlier. Siemens currently trades @538, its 52-wk low.

And in the last couple of days, Welspun Corp apparently bore the brunt of margin selling when some of its pledged shares were offloaded by brokers in the market. The company's trailing 12-month (TTM) EPS was at Rs 17.81 per share (Dec, 2012) giving a P/E ratio was just 3.48 on the current price of 62. The latest book value of the company is Rs 156.33 per share. So on all parameters, it looks beaten down much more than justified.

In one of the largest private equity (PE) deals in June ’11 and its largest in India, Apollo Global Management, a global PE firm with expertise in oil & gas sector, decided to invest up to Rs 2,250 crore ($500 million) across 3 entities of the diversified Welspun Group. This was Apollo’s largest investment in India. Under the deal, Apollo paid Rs 1,305 crore to buy close to 20% in Welspun Corp, through FCCD worth Rs 788 crore and GDR worth Rs 517 crore. The promoter holding in Welspun Corp was 41.07 per cent on March 31 ‘11. After being converted within 18 months at Rs 225 a share, it would represent 13.3 per cent equity capital of Welspun Corp. And on Feb. a week back, on 19^th, as per the terms of agreement, Apollo converted is debentures in Welspun Corp @225/share against a then prevailing market price of 90, a 150% premium.

So all in all, at such beaten down prices, no better time than now or in the following period, to have some of the better names in one’s portfolio, without expecting any miraculous returns in the near term. The key trigger would be the turnaround in the economy when these stocks will rise to their true potential.

Healthy dose

Shasun Pharma, a leading pharma company in the generics space, is engaged in manufacturing active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), their intermediates and enteric coating excipients with a significant presence in some key generics.

What attracted my attention to it today was the crash of more than 11% today on the back of disappointing Q3 results. This is not the first instance of such a crash in this scrip. The earlier instance was in Jan ’11 when it had come down to 76 levels (which was even lower than the current 87), apparently due to forex losses from rupee depreciation. And in the following 18 months, it rose to about 160 following strong performance from its UK tie-ups and operations. Even today, the reasoning give by management for the steep drop in quarterly profits is price pressure on one of the APIs which they were exporting to the US and consequent reduction in price to retain market share. But, the quantities did not move to the extent that they had expected. However, the management has given a strong guidance for the coming quarter following stability in pricing.

Shasun has created a strong product portfolio, building on its R&D expertise, regulatory capabilities and multi scale production capacities. Today, Shasun is one of the largest producers of Ibuprofen worldwide. The company offers derivatives of Ibuprofen like Ibuprofen Sodium, Ibuprofen Lysinate and S+Ibuprofen. It is also one of the major producers of Ranitidine and Nizatidine in the world. Its products are exported to countries across North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America.

Active presence in CRAMS in both API as well as the formulations businesses creates a huge opportunity for Shasun to increase and diversify its revenue base. In addition, the company has several other APIs under development for products, which would turn generic in the next three to five years. Its Greenfield facility in Vizag will enable Shasun Pharma to generate sustainable cash flows over the coming years.

At today’s price, it is quoting @P/E of 7.7 ttm which looks pretty low for a company of its size (10K cr sales) and pedigree. If its past record is anything to go by, it may not be too long before it bounces back to the levels mentioned earlier, giving a huge appreciation over the current price.

Clearwater (PE) checks in

Incorporated in 1986, Kamat Hotels India Ltd (KHI) categorizes its business under four heads - Owned hotels, Management of hotels owned by other parties, Catering services and Others.

It has four brands - The Orchid (which is the flagship brand), VITS, Gadh hotels and Lotus resorts. The Orchid hotel, located at Mumbai, is an environment friendly 5-star hotel (Ecotel) that contributes maximum to the company's revenue. VITS hotels are luxury business hotels and are present in cities such as Mumbai, Aurangabad, Nagpur, Pune, Nasik, Delhi and Bhubaneshwar. The Lotus brand is applied to luxury resorts. They are located at Silvassa, Murud, Udaipur, Konark, Karwar and Goa. The Gadh hotel at Fort Jadhavgadh is located 22 km from Pune and has 38 rooms and 12 tents spread across 3 wings.  Last year, Kamat Hotels absorbed some of the hotels run by the Kamat family, taking promoters' stake to as much as 57%.

However, what is interesting about this company, apart from a very good reputation and pedigree of its founder, one Mr. Vithal Kamat, is a recent development.

Clearwater Capital Partners (who are based out of Cyprus & Singapore) had approx. 23% stake in KHI previously. KHI had issued FCCBs worth $18 million in 2007 to fund their expansion plans (Mumbai Orchid and all that). Anyway, the conversion price back then (at the height of bull market) was set to Rs.225/-. After sanity prevailed, the conversion price was reset to Rs. 135/- in June 2010. Now, KHIL over the past 6 months or so has been converting FCCBs into equity at Rs.135/- (check the various announcements they have made). Clearwater with a complete FCCB conversion would hold approx. 31% of KHI’s diluted equity. Once the percentage holding crossed 25%, open offer rules were triggered and Clearwater made the open offer @135 to the remaining shareholders for the mandatory 26%, which closed recently. Post the closure of the offer, and equity dilution, the shareholding status is as follows:

Promoters (Kamat family & associates) – 51.7%

Clearwater Capital Partners – 41.3%

Public shareholding – 7%

It must be noted that this open offer to acquire 26% @135/share was first announced in January 2012, and made in March 2012, but got delayed due to various reasons. Finally it took place at the end of December 2012.

With the mandatory 25% public shareholding rule to be implemented by June ’13, it remains to be seen how this plays out. Clearwater being a PE would want to make a quick buck on its investment and may not hesitate to sell its stake to hospitality major, local or global. And with brands spanning most segments from budget to luxury, Kamat would be an attractive bet for many hopefuls. Besides, a majority shareholding of the founding family would be an added show of confidence in the long term viability of the business. This could well turn out to be a case similar to that of Wabco where there were 2 equal partners running the company and eventually one wanted total control.

KHI is currently quoting at 112, about 17% below what Clearwater Capital paid for it for such a big stake. However, it must be remembered that it has made a loss of about 6-7 crore each in the last 2 quarters and only a slight profit in the 2 quarters prior to that. So the numbers are not worth talking about at this stage. With the debt of FCCB gone, the interest outgo on this count would stop completely and add straightway to the bottom-line. With the economy slowly on an upswing, hotel and travel tourism segments are doing well and India is now being looked at as a market with tremendous growth potential. With the continuing economic reforms, growing economy and major restructuring of the Company's business, the future outlook of the Company looks promising. Considering all these factors, the stock holds lot of potential at present levels.

Interestingly, Clearwater Capital also has a 27% stake in Vadodara-based Sayaji Hotels.

Profitable holidays

Launched in the mid-1980s Sterling Holiday Resorts was the pioneer in the time share industry which registered red hot growth in the period 1986 to 1995. Mahindra Holidays took a cue from them in this nascent industry and surely but firmly established themselves as the timeshare company in the country. Meanwhile Sterling Holidays sank deeper, not least because of its own doings. So much so that its image for the past many years has been one that of dissatisfied customers coupled with run-down resorts.

The company expanded too fast in the mid-1990s, buying many pieces of land during that time and landing in a lot of debt. Then the crash of 2000 happened and Sterling found that they couldn’t dispose of the excess land that they had bought as property prices had come down. They compounded their problems by overselling their timeshares. Even in the most advanced economies, overselling of time shares has been a problem.

But Sterling Holiday Resorts, which has 19 resorts offering 1523 rooms, has been turning things around. In June ’11, they appointed Ramesh Ramanathan, their President in the nineties (1991-95), and then MD of their arch rival Mahindra Holidays as their MD. And he has started the revival earnestly. The company turned cash positive in the last quarter of the last financial year – the first time in 60 quarters and the trend should continue, if developments over the last year or so are any indication. But things may not happen in a hurry. Sterling wound up the March ’12 quarter with a net loss of Rs 5.91 crore. The comforting factor -- this was lower than the loss of Rs 17.97 crore the immediate previous quarter. Being EBIDTA positive is the start of a turnaround. The tougher task is to do so in the minds of their customers as well and bring back the credibility which they enjoyed once upon a time.

The turning point came when Bay Capital Partners Ltd invested Rs 15.97 crore in early 2009. The accumulated losses at the end of FY 2009 were Rs 203 crore. Bay Capital continued to invest in the company - altogether Rs 78.24 crore - and today has a 32.72 per cent stake. Bay’s Siddharth Mehta took over as Chairman in July 2011. Once Mehta put in the money, Sterling could negotiate with the banks and settle debts. And now, for the first time since 1995, Sterling is a debt-free company.

Then about a year ago the Mumbai-based investor duo – Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Radhakrishna Damani – invested Rs 120 crore in the company (in a combination of equity and warrants; with warrants issued to them to be converted soon each will have a 7.71% stake).

It is pertinent to read the thoughts of RJ, the astute investor. He says “Any buyer of a Rs 5 lakh car is a potential customer. The entry barriers for this business are high because you need at least 10-12 resorts to offer. There are only two players in the market. And, now Sterling has a good management so long term potential is good.” This logic is obviously unquestionable.

Two things have stood Sterling in good stead: keeping the resorts going and not selling the land. That land is going to come in mighty handy now. It has 150 acres of land across 15 destinations, from Mahabaleshwar to Munnar, which will allow it to construct 2,000-plus rooms. More importantly, they have kept all their permissions to build in green areas alive all these years.

Now, Sterling’s resorts are being renovated at a cost of over Rs 100 crore. This also includes the cost of leasing new properties. At Kodaikanal, its first resort has been renovated and rebranded as Kodai by the Lake. Its Munnar resort has been renovated as well. Around 350 rooms of the company's resorts have been refurbished and another 400 will be done by March 2013.

Sterling is reconnecting with its existing member base of 65,000, many of whom are a disgruntled lot. With renovated and new resorts, it expects its members to take it seriously again. Last year, it enrolled 2,500 members. Greenfield resorts are at least 18 months away.  Mahindra Holidays, a company where Ramanathan was earlier the MD, and the leader in this business has more than twice Sterling’s members at 145,000. It operates over 2,000 rooms across 40 resorts.

Sterling’s time share is 30 per cent cheaper than Mahindra’s but the latter’s resorts are superior. They were the pioneers in the business and even when they started nose-diving, they continued to service their members. Sterling’s turnaround has already begun but the real impact will be felt only next year.

Debts wiped out, new investors and a new management. The results are showing. It should only be a matter of time when they will regain their lost glory.

Themes for 2013

Here’s wishing everyone a very happy 2013 ahead. To enhance the happiness further, let me share some useful information regarding some stocks which you might want to add to your New Year shopping list.  This year I believe the focus will be on companies benefitting from government’s reforms drive, consumption on an improving economy and focused on niche areas. With the economy apparently on the verge of a rebound, as market pundits and economists would have us believe and granting them some credit, the companies which are likely to prosper are the ones on the above mentioned themes.

Aditya Birla Nuvo (Bet on Reforms – Financial Services/Retail and Consumption-Retail)

Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd  is $4.5 bn diversified business conglomerate having presence in Financial services (Life insurance, Asset management, NBFC, Private Equity, Broking, Wealth management and Insurance broking), Telecom, IT & ITES, Fashion & Life style and Manufacturing.

If there is one company which is set to fully benefit from government’s reforms initiatives, it is this. Each of its key businesses is a prime reforms beneficiary – Financial Services doubly from the likelihood of granting of banking license as well as Insurance reforms, Retail from opening of FDI in the sector and Telecom thru clarity in licensing policy. Add to this an established management led by Kumar Birla himself, pedigreed brands in Apparels (through its division Madura Fashion & Lifestyle manufactures and sells apparel, footwear and accessories under various premium brands such as Louis Philippe, Van Heusen and Allen Solly besides a mid-range brand such as Peter England and now with Pantaloons under its fold), a promising mobile operator Idea, and the 5^th largest Insurance business in India, it surely has all the ingredients to be a blockbuster in the coming times.

This stock has not gone anywhere over the past 5 years when it was quoting at Rs 2000, though @1100, it is still quoting at its 3-year high. So effectively, @1100, it is quoting 45 percent below the 5 year high and in the same period the company’s profit has gone up by 300%. The company is a store house of deep value but needs management push to unlock that. Agreed that valuation-wise, it is not exactly cheap @39 times ttm earnings, but from the current price of about 1100, it can easily go up by another 30% based on how it goes about value unlocking in each of its businesses which have gained significant size and are in a position to stand on their own. Post the acquisition of Pantaloon and with the Insurance business also doing well, there should be a significant upside in the earnings leading to much better valuations. A bonus will be an uptick in its manufacturing businesses such as VFY, carbon black, fertilizers and services business such as Telecom and IT/BPO.

Max India (Bet on Reforms – Financial Services/Insurance and Healthcare)

Another company which has bet on the right sectors in the Indian context is Max India. Its key operations are in Hospitals (where it operates a chain of hospitals under its subsidiary Max Healthcare) and Insurance. Max India, incorporated in 1988, belongs to Analjit Singh group and operates in the health care, life insurance, and clinical research sectors in India. It also engages in leasing medical and other equipments. It operates in both domestic as well as global market.

Max India operates in 5 businesses:

1. Max Life Insurance, a JV with Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance where it holds 70% stake
2. Max Bupa Health Insurance, a JV with Bupa of UK, a leading international healthcare provider with over 60 years of healthcare knowledge
3. Hospitals under Max Healthcare
4. Max Neeman International, a Clinical Research services provider offering, services across the value chain of new drug development to a growing list of Pharmaceutical, Biotech and Clinical Research clients, in India and abroad.
5. Max Speciality Films, specializing in the manufacture of a wide range of sophisticated Packaging unmetallised BOPP films and metallised BOPP films including High Barrier films, Thermal Lamination films and Leather finishing foils. It caters to the needs of diverse packaging industries including food packaging, overwrapping, consumer products, labels and textile industries

That Max has been able to attract the attention of global investors (PE as well as operational entities) indicates the management credibility and the attractiveness of the business segment. Not only that, the management itself has shown great confidence in their own business by subscribing to nearly 80 lakh shares at Rs. 217/share last July/August, increasing their stake by another 3%.

In June ’11, GS Capital Partners, the PE arm of Goldman Sachs picked up over 9% thru conversion of debentures @217/share, at a premium of 30% to the then market price of about 166. What surprised the market was that the fund opted for conversion at a premium even after the company reported a loss of 42 cr. for FY 11.

In Oct ’11, Max India entered into an agreement to sell 26% stake in its subsidiary Max Healthcare to Life Healthcare, the second largest player in South Africa for a consideration of Rs516 cr. Post the deal, the stake of Max India would reduce to 70% in Max Healthcare. The deal is the largest FDI deal in a healthcare business. Max Healthcare will have exclusivity over the business that Life Healthcare does in India for the first three years, post which Max Healthcare will have the exclusivity in northern India.

Recently, it announced that Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance (MSI) proposes to acquire 26% stake in Max New York Life Insurance (MNYL). MSI will acquire 16.6% from New York Life and 9.4% from Max India. NY Life will exit the business and Max India will buy residual 9.4% stake from NY Life at Rs1.9 billion (close to book value). Thus, Max India’s stake in the business remains unchanged.

With the opening up on Insurance sector, more value unlocking looks likely in both Life as well as Health Insurance JVs leading to enhanced returns even from current levels supported by ensuing business growth. @242, a PE of just 12.5 on ttm warnings, Max surely has some way to go yet. Max is a value (BOPP films, CRO) cum growth (Insurance and Healthcare) play giving a very high risk/reward ratio. Looking at the overall scenario, it may not be very surprising if Max looks to exit this business since it doesn’t fit in with the rest of their portfolio. The only thing to be kept in mind is that this won’t happen overnight but over the next few years. Other than Apollo Hospitals, which is not really cheap at current valuations, but is also a pedigreed stock, there is no listed peer for Max and this is an inherent advantage.

CARE (Niche focus, strong fundamentals)

This got a blockbuster response to its IPO getting oversubscribed 41 times overall with retail part being 6 times. And true to the response, it listed at a healthy 25% premium and is currently quoting above 900.

Some of the leading anchor investors of CARE include Goldman Sachs India Fund, DB International Asia, Tata AIA Life Insurance, Birla Sun Life Insurance, Sundaram Mutual Fund. All these are either conservative investors (Sundaram) or long term players (insurance companies). The fact that they have chosen to invest in CARE speaks a lot about its credibility and long-term investment worthiness.

Currently in the ratings space, CARE has 2 other worthy competitors – ICRA and CRISIL. CARE is the second largest rating company in India by rating turnover with strong domestic parents in the form of IDBI & SBI. It offers a wide range of rating and grading services across a diverse range of instruments and industries. CARE has strong brand recognition and credibility in the ratings market gained through years of experience. Fees from rating of debt instruments, bank loans and facilities and deposit obligations form bulk of revenues. In recent years, CARE has expanded its rating product portfolio to include SME/MSE rating, Edu-grade (educational institution rating), Equi-grade (equity research company rating), Real Estate (project rating) and market linked debenture valuation.

There are some fundamentally compelling reasons why this should do well not only in the coming year but many more to come:

1. It is a proxy play on economic growth likely to materially benefit from rising secular demand for rating services from corporate and banks. Expansion of rating product portfolio would also support a strong revenue growth in the medium term.
2. It is the most operationally efficient rating company earning significantly higher operating margin than listed peers (65-70% v/s 30-33% for peers during FY12) due to 85% of its revenue coming from ratings business.
3. The company’s unconsolidated total income grew at a CAGR of 41% during FY08-12 while operating income rose by 41.8% and profit 41.3%, healthy figures by any yardstick. Though competitive dynamics may sober margin going ahead, healthy earnings growth could still continue driven by strong headline growth.
4. @915, it quotes at a PE of 27 based on annualized H1 FY13 earnings. This is significantly cheaper than valuation of CRISIL (@1045 - 37x annualized 9M CY12 earnings) and ICRA (@1450 - 33x annualized H1 FY13 earnings).

The other attractive point about CARE is its lack of a strong foreign investor at this point of time, in spite of having a good institutional shareholding from Indian banks and financial institutions. Moody’s has bought into ICRA and S&P has a big holding in CRISIL (53%). It may only be a matter of time when it catches the eye of an international rating-related firms (Fitch for one, Bloomberg which is not strictly into rating but in related areas) for investment, given its strong fundamentals. As and when such a development happens, it will surely get a boost from existing levels.

Pipavav Defense & Offshore Company (Niche area)

This company, promoted by Nikhil Gandhi, has seen its fair share of ups and downs over the last year or so. I have already written about it earlier (Midcap Carnage – 26/07/12 as well as Diwali Dhamaka – 12/11/12) and nothing has changed to make me rethink my views on this. If anything, there have been more positive developments which were only possibilities earlier (Mazgaon Doc JV which was challenged and has since been formed in early Dec. ‘12, interest shown by the French defense major DCNS for a stake @110/share, and signing of an agreement with SAAB, an International Strategic Investor @82/share which is touted as a first strategic investment made by a global defence major into an Indian company focusing on defence production).

At 91, it is pretty close or even below the price most global investors have paid for investing in it. While promoters hold about 45% stake, among the major public shareholders, LIC and IL&FS together hold about 16% in the company. So effectively, 16% is in strong hands, Both LIC & IL&FS are known to be long term investors and more so in the infrastructure space. So at the current price, there is not much to lose but a lot to gain i.e. risk/return ratio is pretty attractive.

Dark horse

Though this may look expensive currently, or may have run up significantly, it still holds promise based on valuation and prospects.

Wockhardt

This has run up from about 300 to 1575 currently beyond the wildest imagination of everybody concerned. However, if u look at its 6-month performance, they had an EPS of nearly 76 which makes it nearly 150 for the whole year, which is not unlikely given its operating fundamentals esp. the US business. So at 1575, it is trading at just 10-11 PE for the whole year. For a company of this size and scale if you compare it with its peer groups like Lupin , Glenmark, Dr. Reddys, Ranbaxy, they are trading between 18-20 times. So there is no reason why Wockhardt should trade at a discount considering that turnaround has happened, and that  this is one of the few cases of a management who has successfully delivered and turned around the company with  EBITDA margin which is around top three in the industry.

The only thing which may go against it is the huge run-up that has already happened. But with Obama back in power, and with healthcare as his pet theme, the above scenario doesn’t look unlikely in the next year or so.

And just to check how I did last year, let’s recap my last year’s bets. 

1. Maruti Suzuki was quoting @900 at this time last year, mainly due to the labor unrest at its Manesar plant, which impacted its production and hence profits. I thought it was a screaming buy since the unrest would not have continued for  long and have been proved right with returns of 66% @CMP of 1490 (my conservative estimate was around 50%). Going forward, things don’t appear so bright and it is unlikely to repeat its last year’s performance in a hurry. Also, with fuel prices on an upward trajectory (both petrol and diesel as per govt’s latest pronouncements), things don’t appear so rosy for the country’s largest carmaker. It may be time to log out and take a breather on this one.

2.  Wockhardt – Refer above for my thoughts on this. On the returns front, it was quoting around 250 at this time last year and CMP is 1575. You can do your own calculations. And I will be honest enough to admit that this went beyond my wildest expectation. Mr. Khorakiwala really outdid himself on this one. Just goes on to show that backing a sound promoter does pay even if the business is not doing particularly well at a given time. Eventually it will turn around and in style (look at Godrej Soaps as an example; referred as a soap company in its formative years and indeed it was one, under Adi Godrej, it has transformed itself into a focused FMCG player and more than in just soaps)

3.  Shriram Transport Finance – This is again a great company to stay invested in over the long term. While it has run up from 450-750 in a year’s time, there are still some triggers which may play out over the longer term:

a. The granting of banking license for which STFC is considered a favorite due to RBI’s inclination towards entities which have a strong financial backing.

b. The expected move by RBI to lower interest rates will benefit STFC as it has a presence is in the niche segment of pre-owned commercial vehicle financing .

c. Their Automall initiative (a kind of 1-stop shop for vehicles) has received a huge response and given them access to a much wider customer base which theu would otherwise have struggled to get. Going forward, they plan to launch a host of vehicle-related services in Automalls like insurance, tyre credit, vehicle refurbishment, bill discounting, load placement, which will provide them a good source of distribution income which can be a significant factor, given the volumes. 

     Speculation is that Mr. Ajay Piramal, flush with funds from sale of his key business to Abott last year, is looking at buying out TPG’s stake here and STFC promoters are not averse to it. If this happens, then it should be a great thing – 2 great Indian business families getting together – what  more can u ask for?

4.  Hero Motocorp – This has played out well as expected and is now back to levels where it is likely to remain for some time to come given the current macro environment esp. for 2-wheelers. Add to that the growing competition from the likes of Honda, their erstwhile partner and now a strong rival, and Mr. Munjal has his hands full. Of course a positive change in the environment could well be a breather but Hero is fighting too many battles currently. There is no fundamental issue here, but returns will only accrue over the long term from current levels, and there is every likelihood of the price coming down from current levels when it could merit a re-look.

And may you all have a very happy 2013 after selling off the above at prices at much higher prices than current (though all these can surely prove to be wealth generators for years to come).